Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 36.765326 41.672378 47.483920 55.020292 64.768461 77.316190 9.536903e+01
2025-05-04 30.365489 36.410805 44.337372 56.006387 73.818024 102.334953 1.585184e+02
2025-05-11 26.157579 32.575754 41.612024 56.259743 81.982497 133.056549 2.830870e+02
2025-05-18 22.991848 29.380476 38.834273 55.296467 87.693758 166.441726 5.546049e+02
2025-05-25 20.924181 27.324544 37.210244 55.575410 95.973891 219.501558 1.854219e+03
2025-06-01 19.195285 25.475980 35.497909 55.095699 102.489465 284.693478 9.838996e+06
2025-06-08 17.756829 23.866732 33.870815 54.272473 107.851991 368.213964 NaN
2025-06-15 16.582514 22.527606 32.478688 53.534824 113.233881 488.905436 NaN
2025-06-22 15.641608 21.458977 31.397628 53.179901 119.878479 696.854044 NaN
2025-06-29 14.699986 20.297496 29.990970 51.746702 122.091588 925.793172 NaN
2025-07-06 14.421441 20.209700 30.553913 55.126301 146.436369 3432.214095 NaN
2025-07-13 13.742796 19.376729 29.578355 54.410743 152.806334 11922.337413 NaN
2025-07-20 13.231668 18.804492 29.070266 54.885236 166.845797 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 12.791783 18.322927 28.688690 55.639128 184.681524 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 12.341458 17.788558 28.138183 55.789844 200.117922 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 11.842267 17.132580 27.267414 54.797489 206.634844 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 11.480208 16.701931 26.830796 55.053659 225.213301 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 11.095046 16.204738 26.203382 54.573361 237.492112 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 10.717077 15.699503 25.514808 53.759557 246.049512 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 10.372801 15.238715 24.886604 53.031918 255.458675 NaN NaN
2025-09-14 10.077236 14.853639 24.395404 52.681862 270.292323 NaN NaN
2025-09-21 9.734957 14.364788 23.636693 51.270381 268.831612 NaN NaN
2025-09-28 9.697550 14.448160 24.173831 54.597372 355.705631 NaN NaN